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Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 25th of each month. In the case that the 25th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

MME Predictions

Individual Model Predictions

Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook

for April - September 2019

 

(Issued: 25 Mar, 2019)

Positive SST anomalies are likely to remain across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean for April – June 2019, and strengthen for July – September 2019. Four out of five dynamical coupled models predict a Niño3.4 index exceeding +1oC to persist through April – June 2019 and slightly increase through July – September 2019. Positive SST anomalies are predicted over the Indian Ocean basin without any significant zonal gradient for April – June 2019. Positive SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean are expected to be enhanced for July – September 2019, which correspond to the weak positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole index. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests moderate El Niño conditions (~55% probability) for April – June 2019 and the conditions are likely to strengthen to moderate to strong levels for July – September 2019.

 

Fig. 1. Predicted Niño 3.4 Index from individual models (A, B, C, D, and E) and the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME).

Fig. 2. Predicted Indian Ocean Dipole mode index (IODMI) from individual models (A, B, C, D, and E) and the MME.

Fig. 1. Predicted Niño 3.4 Index from individual models (A, B, C, D, and E) and the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME).

 Fig. 2. Predicted Indian Ocean Dipole mode index (IODMI) from individual models (A, B, C, D, and E) and the MME.

Fig. 4. Probabilistic MME forecasts of the status and intensity based on 3-month mean Niño3.4 index for four overlapping 3-month mean periods. Anomalies are computed with respect to the common base period of participating models in the APCC MME prediction (1983-2010).

Fig. 3. Multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of SST anomalies for April - June 2019 (top) and July - September 2019 (bottom). Anomalies are computed with respect to the common base period of participating models in the APCC MME prediction (1983-2010).

Fig. 3. Multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of SST anomalies for April - June 2019 (top) and July - September 2019 (bottom). Anomalies are computed with respect to the common base period of participating models in the APCC MME prediction (1983-2010).

Fig. 4. Probabilistic MME forecasts of the status and intensity based on 3-month mean Niño3.4 index for four overlapping 3-month mean periods. Anomalies are computed with respect to the common base period of participating models in the APCC MME prediction (1983-2010).

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MME Predictions

Individual Model Predictions