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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 25th of each month. In the case that the 25th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

Outlook

Climate Outlook for April - September 2019

 

​(Issued: 25 Mar, 2019)

  • ○ During February 2019, El Niño conditions were strengthened with positive sea surface temperature anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • ○  The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a greater than 55% probability for moderate El Niño during April – June, and a greater than 80% probability for El Niño conditions during July – September 2019.
  • ○ Positive temperature anomalies are likely to prevail over the tropical Pacific, subtropical South Pacific, northern North Pacific, maritime continent, tropical Atlantic, western and central Indian Ocean, southern Africa, northern South America for April – September 2019.
  • ○  Below normal precipitation anomalies are expected for the central off-equatorial Pacific and the seas off the north coast of Australia, and above normal precipitation anomalies are expected for the equatorial Pacific for April – September 2019.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: 

 

1. Forecast for April – June 2019

 

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical Pacific, northwestern and northern North Pacific, subtropical South Pacific, maritime continent, tropical and subtropical Atlantic, northern South America, southern Africa, and the Indian Ocean (excluding the eastern part). Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Canada, Australia, and north Africa. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the southern Indian Ocean near Australia and the Antarctic Ocean near South America. Strongly enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the equatorial Pacific.​ Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the Philippines, Philippine Sea, and the central off-equatorial North Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the seas off the north coast of Australia , Bay of Bengal, Arabia Sea, Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic.

 

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img

2. Forecast for July - September 2019

 

Strongly enhanced probability for ​above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical Pacific, northern North Pacific, subtropical South Pacific, maritime continent, tropical and subtropical Atlantic, northern South America, Africa, India, and the Indian Ocean (excluding the eastern part). Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Canada, and Eurasia (excluding central Russia). Strongly enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the equatorial Pacific. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the seas off the north coast of Australia and the Caribbean Sea. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the central off-equatorial Pacific, central Indian Ocean, southern Indian Ocean near southern Australia, and the tropical Atlantic. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for the Arabian Peninsula.

 

Current Climate Conditions_img

Current Climate Conditions_img