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WCRP Workshop on Extremes in Climate Prediction Ensembles (ExCPEns)


Subseasonal ∙ Seasonal ∙ Annual to Decadal ∙ Multi-decadal

  

 

| Date & Place  

 25-27 (Mon-Wed) October​,  2021 for ExCPEns (hybrid) / Busan, Korea

 27-28 (Wed-Thu) October​,  2021 for ECS training session and discussion forum (online only)

 

| Hosted by  

- APEC Climate Center (APCC)

- ​Pusan National University

 

| Organized by  

- WCRP Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP)  ​

- WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes  ​

- WWRP/WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S)  

 

| Funded by  

- Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN)

- World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

- ​Pusan National University 

- ​APEC Climate Center (APCC)

  

| Workshop Format

-  Hybrid workshop including offline and online participation

   * Please be noted that the workshop format may be changed later with careful consideration of COVID-19 and the worldwide status.

 

1. ExCPEns


| Objectives 

Weather and climate extremes have enormous impacts on society, and are becoming more severe and frequent as the world warms. Associated risks of heat waves/cold spells, droughts/floods, wind and other extremes are continually evolving in response to climate variations superimposed on forced climate changes. By providing many realizations of climate-system evolution from observation-based initial conditions, climate prediction ensembles offer a powerful tool to better quantify these risks, delineate possibilities for unprecedented extremes, and understand the underlying physical mechanisms and attribution of such events.

 

The purpose of this workshop is to provide a focal point for current research aimed at exploiting subseasonal, seasonal, annual to decadal and longer-term prediction ensembles to improve the prediction and understanding of extreme weather and climate events. Topics to be addressed include: 

   - prediction of specific extreme events at extended and longer ranges (>10 days) 

   - quantifying the risks of extremes, including unprecedented events, in the current and future climate 

   - impacts and physical mechanisms of unprecedented extremes in climate prediction ensembles 

 

This workshop specifically addresses Objective 2 of the new WCRP Strategic Plan focusing on “Prediction of the near-term evolution of the climate system” and its scientific emphasis on extremes.  

 

| Potential Sessions of ExCPEns

   (1) Identification of extremes in observations and climate prediction ensembles

   (2)​ Physical mechanisms of extremes in observations and climate prediction ensembles

   (3) Regional climate extreme information relating to impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

   (4) Prediction and predictability of large-scale climate variability relevant to extreme events

   (5) Prediction and predictability of specific extreme events (>10 days)

   (6) Quantifying current and future risks of climate extremes 

 

2. ECS training sessions and discussion forum (online only)


| Objectives 

As to support APN's Goal 2, local capacity development, we are seeking capable Early Career Scientists (ECS) in the Asia-Pacific region to build capacities on understanding, predicting, and assessing risks and impacts of weather and climate extremes. Through this workshop, ECS will be participating in a closed training session and networking session and making a presentation during the main workshop. Through this opportunity, it is expected that ECS would enhance networking and connections to the broader global and regional research communities in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

The key objectives of the ECS training and networking session are;

   - Bringing together global established scientists and ECS from APN member countries, with a focus on supporting participation from APN developing nations

   - ​Building capacity of ECS in the Asia-Pacific region to understand, predict, and assess risks and impacts of weather and climate extremes 

 

| Activities

   (1) 1.5 day training session will consist of invited lectures on physical mechanisms of extremes and prediction and predictability of large-scale climate variability relevant to extreme events. There will be also invited lectures on introducing methodologies to identify extremes and their impacts in observation and climate prediction ensembles. 

   (2) A discussion forum will bring together global established scientists and ECS from APN member countries to enhance capacity of ECS to understand, predict, and assess risks and impacts of weather and climate extremes.

   (3) ECS will have a chance to make a presentation in ExCPEns.

 

| Scientific Organizing Committee  

William Merryfield (Environment and Climate Change Canada, Co-chair of WCRP/WGSIP) 

Doug Smith (UK Met Office, Co-chair of WCRP/WGSIP) 

Frédéric Vitart (ECMWF, Co-chair of WCRP/WWRP/S2S) 

Xuebin Zhang (Environment and Climate Change Canada, Co-chair of WCRP/GC-Extremes) 

Arun Kumar (NOAA, WCRP/WWRP/S2S) 

Hongli Ren (China Meteorological Administration, WCRP/WGSIP)  

Michel Rixen (WCRP)

Catherine Michaut (IPSL/UVSQ, WCRP) 

Yun-Young Lee (APCC) 

June-Yi Lee (Pusan National University, WCRP/WGSIP) 

 

| Local Organizing Committee  

Jin-Ho Yoo (APCC) 

Sangwon Moon (APCC) 

June-Yi Lee (Pusan National University, WCRP/WGSIP)