Page 31 - APEC CLIMATE CENTER 2025 Annual Report

APEC CLIMATE CENTER 2025 ANNUAL REPORT

Research 1. Operation and Technical Development of Real-Time,

Research Projects in 2025 Projects Highly Validated Climate Prediction System for the
Asia-Pacific Region
in 2025 • Practical implementation of climate information services and strengthening research

and development capabilities to address the climate crisis in the Asia-Pacific region

1-1. Operation and Improvement of Asia-Pacific Climate Informa-
Practical implementation of climate information services and strengthening research and tion Services
development capabilities to address the climate crisis in the Asia-Pacific region • Generating operational seasonal and subseasonal forecasts to effectively address climate

extremes in the Asia-Pacific region

Year 1 (2025) Year 2 (2026) Year 3 (2027) Project 1. Enhancing the Effectiveness of MME Seasonal Forecasts for Responding
to Extreme Climate
Building the Foundation Advancing the Deployment
Annual Enhancing Extreme Climate
for the Expansion of of Climate Crisis Response ㉖ Dr. Jinho Yoo (jhyoo@apcc21.org)
Strategic Services and Solidifying
Climate and Climate Technologies and the
Objectives International Leadership in
Change Information in Establishment of an 1) Background and Relevance
Climate Crisis Response in the
the Asia-Pacific Information System in the
Asia-Pacific Region - With the intensification of climate change leading to more frequent climatic extremes
Region Asia-Pacific Region
such as heatwaves and floods, conventional tercile-based seasonal forecasts (above/
near/below normal) alone have exhibited limitations in supporting effective responses
to extreme events. This necessitates the interpretation and expansion of seasonal pre-
diction information from both extreme and physical perspectives.
분류 사업종류 과제명 - Previous evaluations of MME prediction skill have mainly relied on hindcast datasets, re-
sulting in a limited understanding of the characteristics and reliability of real-time forecasts
Project 1: Enhancing the effectiveness of MME seasonal forecasts for
that reflect recent and rapid climate change trends. Accordingly, it is imperative to explore
responding to extreme climate
new predictive products for responding to extreme climate events using the large ensemble
1-1. Operation and Project 2: Development of advanced subseasonal-to-seasonal datasets of the APCC MME, and to gradually enhance the interpretability and usability of
Improvement of Asia-Pacific forecasting approaches enabling seamless prediction seasonal forecast information through the diagnostic analysis of major climate modes.
Climate Information Services
Project 3: Enhancement of Seasonal Prediction Information Systems 2) Main Results
1. Operation and Development of Subseasonal Prediction Infrastructure in
and Technical A. Development of Predictive Information for Extreme Climate Response
the Asia-Pacific Region
Development - Climate distribution analysis and probabilistic forecast evaluation: Distributional char-
of Real- Project 4: Technology Development for Annual-to-Decadal (A2D) acteristics of observational and climate prediction data were analyzed, and various
Time, Highly 1-2. Monitoring, Analysis Extreme Climate Outlooks in the Asia–Pacific Region bias correction methods were applied to establish foundational methodologies for
Validated And Prediction System extending seasonal predictions toward extreme and physically based perspectives.
Climate Improvement for Extreme Project 5: Advanced Downscaling for High-resolution Climate - Integrated analysis of monthly precipitation, precipitation frequency, and intensity:
Prediction Climate in East Asia Information and Sectoral Applications (I) Relationships between monthly total precipitation and precipitation frequency and in-
System for the tensity were examined to diagnose regional differences in precipitation mechanisms
Asia-Pacific 1-3. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-
relevant to extreme rainfall characteristics.
Region based Objectification Project 6: Exploring Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Better Forecast
B. Diagnostics of Major Climate Modes in MME Seasonal Predictions
Technology Development for of Climate Extremes
- Evaluation of oceanic and atmospheric climate mode predictability: Predictability
Climate Prediction
of major climate modes, including the tropical Pacific (ENSO), North Atlantic, Indian
1-4. Improvement of the
Ocean (IOD, IOB), and atmospheric indices (AO, NAO, etc.), was assessed for both hind-
Verification and Utilization Project 7: Development of a Verification Framework and Expansion of
cast and real-time forecast periods.
Framework for Climate Testbeds for Advancing Climate Prediction Models
- Analysis of real-time forecast datasets: Real-time forecast data accumulated since 2012
Prediction Models
were analyzed to examine climate mode prediction characteristics under operational
2. Green Climate 2-1. Joint Project with the UN conditions and to compare them with hindcast-based assessments.
Fund (GCF) Environment Programme Project 8: Enhancing Climate Information and Knowledge Services for C. Operation and Improvement of Operational Climate Prediction Systems
Supported (UNEP) Resilience in 5 Island Countries of the Pacific Ocean - Enhancement of the MME system: A new model from Pukyong National University
Projects (PKNU) was incorporated, improvements to existing models (CWA, CMCC, METFR)

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