Page 39 - APEC CLIMATE CENTER 2025 Annual Report

APEC CLIMATE CENTER 2025 ANNUAL REPORT

Research 1-2. Monitoring, Analysis and Prediction System Improvement for Research

Projects Extreme Climate in East Asia Projects

• Evaluating annual-to-decadal (A2D) extreme climate predictability and producing
in 2025 high-resolution downscaled data to improve the quality and utilization of climate change in 2025
information in the Asia-Pacific region.

Project 4. Technology Development for Annual-to-Decadal (A2D) Extreme Climate
Outlooks in the Asia–Pacific Region)

㉖ Dr. OkYeon Kim (oykim@apc21.org)

1) Background and Relevance
- Anthropogenic climate change has led to the escalation of extreme climate-related disas-
ters to a critical level.
- In the Asia–Pacific region, extreme climate events associated with climate change are
increasing, and consequently, related socio-economic risks are also growing. Therefore,
reliable A2D forecast information on the occurrence of extreme climate events is essen-
Fig 27 Overview of research content
tial to support proactive policy decisions for climate change adaptation and response.
3) Expected Implications
2) Main Results
- Strengthening of research capacity for international collaborative research through
A. Developing storylines for A2D extreme climate outlooks in the Asia–Pacific region DCPP-related studies and international exchanges.
- Selected atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface factors associated with observed ex- - Creation of opportunities to participate in future DCPP initiatives.
treme climate events (high-impact events, HI events; heat waves/cold waves, drought/ - Establishment of a scientific foundation for responding to the new climate regime by
heavy rainfall). developing A2D-scale climate prediction technologies.
· Selected atmospheric, oceanic, and land-surface factors associated with the regional - Provision of climate-risk prediction information applicable to long-term climate-change
characteristics of extreme climate events through statistical and dynamical analyses adaptation policy planning in sectors such as agriculture and hydrology.
(considering relationships with variability and frequency over the A2D period).
· Analyzed the sensitivity (e.g., duration, intensity) of the relationship between extreme
events and the selected factors, and examined the underlying causes and mecha-
nisms. Project 5. Advanced Downscaling for High-resolution Climate Information and
· Prioritize the selected factors according to duration, intensity, and related character- Sectoral Applications (Ⅰ)
istics.

B. Developing bias-correction methods for A2D extreme climate outlooks in the Asia– ㉖ Dr. Seongkyu Lee (geoslegend@apcc21.org)
Pacific region
- Analyzed the predictability of extreme climate events in A2D climate data (determinis-
1) Background and Relevance
tic and probabilistic).
1)
· Evaluated regional predictability of extreme climate events at A2D scales (e.g., annual, - Global Climate Models (GCMs) possess limitations in spatial resolution, which restrict
5-year, and 10-year). their applicability in regional-scale disaster risk assessment and policy formulation.
· Identified the characteristics of extreme events with high forecast skill (e.g., average Therefore, it is necessary to develop high-resolution climate change scenario downscal-
of maximum values over a fixed period—1, 5, or 10 years—frequency, intensity, and du- ing technologies that reflect local and regional climate characteristics.
ration). Glossary - Through statistical and deep learning–based downscaling methods, this initiative seeks
to overcome the resolution limitations of climate data and, based on evaluations of na-
C. Providing monitoring and analysis information on extreme climate and respond- 1) Global Climate Model (GCM):
tional standard climate change scenarios, provide region-specific climate projection
ing to climate issues
A physics-based climate prediction information, thereby strengthening climate change adaptation measures and policy re-
- Monitored extreme weather/climate events in the Asia–Pacific region and analyzed
model that numerically simulates the sponse capacities.
their causes.
interactions among the major compo-
- Prepared climate anomaly reports for relevant ministries and agencies nents of the Earth system—such as the 2) Main Results
atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and
cryosphere—in order to scientifically A. Generation of satellite-based high-resolution gridded data, algorithm develop-
project past, present, and future global ment, and quality control
climate change.

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