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Sea Surface Temperature


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

SST

Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook

for July - December 2020

 

(Issued: 19 June, 2020)

 

The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be neutral to negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are predicted during July – September 2020, and these anomalies are expected to strengthen during October – December 2020. Along with these spatial distributions, nine out of ten dynamical coupled models predict negative Niño3.4 index for the whole forecast period. As a result, a decreasing Niño3.4 index from -0.4℃ to -0.6℃ is predicted. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests about 53% chance of ENSO neutral conditions is dominant during July to September 2020. The chance for the conditions is likely to gradually decrease until October to December 2020, whereas the chance for the La Niña conditions is likely to increase (~52%). Its intensity is expected to be weak.

 

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Probability of ENSO state

MME SEASON

Spatial distribution

MME SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MME

Spatial distribution

MODEL SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MODEL