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Sea Surface Temperature


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

SST

Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook

for June - November 2020

 

(Issued: 20 May, 2020)

 

The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be neutral to negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are predicted during June – August 2020, and these anomalies are expected to strengthen during September – November 2020. Along with these spatial distributions, six out of ten dynamical coupled models predict negative Niño3.4 index for the whole forecast period. As a result, a decreasing Niño3.4 index from -0.16℃ to -0.67℃ is predicted. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests 62% chance of ENSO neutral conditions is dominant during June to August 2020. The chance for the conditions is likely to gradually decrease until September to November 2020, whereas the chance for the La Niña conditions is likely to increase (~48%). Its intensity is expected to be weak.

 

Fig 1. Multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of SST anomalies for May - July 2020 (left) and August - October 2020 (right). Anomalies are computed with respect to the common base period of participating models in the APCC MME prediction (1991-2010).
Fig 2. Predicted monthly mean Niño3.4 index from individual models and MME for May - October 2020. Anomalies are computed with respect to the common base period of participating models in the APCC MME prediction (1991-2010).
Fig 3. Probabilistic MME forecasts of the status and intensity based on 3-month mean Niño3.4 index for four overlapping 3-month mean periods. Anomalies are computed with respect to the common base period of participating models in the APCC MME prediction (1991-2010).
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Probability of ENSO state

MME SEASON

Spatial distribution

MME SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MME

Spatial distribution

MODEL SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MODEL