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Sea Surface Temperature


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

SST

Sea Surface Temperature and ENSO Outlook

for September 2020 - February 2021

 

(Issued: 20 Aug, 2020)

 

The prevailing ENSO phase is expected to be negative. Negative SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific are predicted during September 2020 – February 2021. Along with these spatial distributions, nine out of ten dynamical coupled models predict negative Niño3.4 index for the whole forecast period. As a result, a Niño3.4 index below or around -0.5℃ is predicted. In summary, based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the APCC ENSO outlook suggests La Niña conditions (74% probability) with weak intensity for September to November 2020 and the probability for the conditions is likely to decrease to 59% for December 2020 to February 2021

 

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Probability of ENSO state

MME SEASON

Spatial distribution

MME SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MME

Spatial distribution

MODEL SEASON

Time-longitude Cross Section

MODEL