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Summary


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

The APCC seasonal forecast is produced through a multi-model ensemble method, utilizing climate models from 14 climate forecasting centers and institutions in 10 countries around the world. Our forecast information should be used for reference only. Please consult the respective country’s national meteorological service for the official seasonal forecast for that country.

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Climate Outlook for November 2020 - April 2021


(Issued: 20 Oct, 2020)


○  During September 2020, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

○  The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 97% probability of La Niña with strong intensity during November 2020 – January 2021 and a 79% probability for the same conditions during February – April 2021.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), northern North Pacific, and the subtropical North Atlantic, whereas strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the central equatorial Pacific for November 2020 – April 2021.

○ ​Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), whereas enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the eastern subtropical South Pacific and the northeastern subtropical Pacific for November 2020 – April 2021.