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Summary


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

The APCC seasonal forecast is produced through a multi-model ensemble method, utilizing climate models from 14 climate forecasting centers and institutions in 10 countries around the world. Our forecast information should be used for reference only. Please consult the respective country’s national meteorological service for the official seasonal forecast for that country.

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Climate Outlook for December 2020 - May 2021


(Issued: 20 Nov, 2020)


○  The “La Niña ALERT” remains, meaning the chance of La Niña forming in the coming two seasons is around 70%.

○  During October 2020, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to be -1.5℃ and increase to -0.6℃ in December 2020 – May 2021. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 49% probability of strong La Niña for December 2020 – February 2021 and a 37% probability of weak La Niña for February – April 2021.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for northern Mexico and enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for eastern Russia and Northern Europe for December 2020 – May 2021.

○ ​Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for southern USA and a tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for Argentina for December 2020 – May 2021.