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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

Outlook

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Climate Outlook for July - December 2020


(Issued: 19 June, 2020)


○ ​ During May 2020, weak negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

○ ​ The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests 53% probability for ENSO neutral conditions during July – September 2020 and 52% probability for La Niña conditions with a weak level during October – December 2020.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the western North Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), tropical Atlantic, subtropical South Atlantic, and the eastern Indian Ocean for July – December 2020.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western equatorial Pacific for July – September 2020, and enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the same region for October – December 2020.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for July - September 2020

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Pacific (excluding equatorial regions and eastern South Pacific), eastern and western Indian Ocean, tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for Asia (excluding India), North America (excluding central Canada and USA), Central America, North and Central Africa, northern Australia, and the Arctic. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for Europe, southern Africa, South America, and the Antarctic. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the eastern equatorial Pacific, eastern tropical South Pacific, Great Australian Bight, and the southern Indian Ocean near Madagascar. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern off-equatorial North Pacific, western Indian Ocean near Madagascar, Indonesia, northern India, and eastern Africa. A tendency for above normal precipitation is expected for southern Australia, the southern South Pacific, central Russia, and the western Arctic. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the Philippine Sea and the equatorial Atlantic. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern subtropical South Pacific, southern Brazil, the southern Indian Ocean near Madagascar and southern Australia, southwestern Africa, and the Mediterranean Sea. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for the eastern equatorial Pacific and northern North Africa.

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2. Forecast for October - December 2020

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Arctic, western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), western subtropical North Pacific, seas between Indonesia and Australia, eastern Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic, and the subtropical South Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the eastern Pacific (excluding equatorial regions), Eurasia (excluding Central Asia and India), America (excluding western Canada and northern South America), and the subtropical North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern tropical South Pacific. Enhanced probability for near normal temperatures is expected for the central and eastern off-equatorial North Pacific. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the Arctic, South China Sea, Philippine Sea, and the Coral Sea. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western equatorial Pacific and the eastern subtropical South Pacific. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for the southern Indian Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, southern Central Asia, and southern West Africa. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for the eastern equatorial Pacific. A tendency for near normal precipitation is predicted for North Africa.

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