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Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

Outlook

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Climate Outlook for August 2020 - January 2021


(Issued: 20 July, 2020)


○ ​ During June 2020, weak negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

○ ​ The latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests around a 60% chance of La Niña conditions with a weak intensity during August 2020 – January 2021.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Arctic, western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), northern North Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic for August 2020 – January 2021.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western equatorial Pacific for August – October 2020, and enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the same region for November 2020 – January 2021.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for August - October 2020

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Pacific (excluding equatorial region and the eastern South Pacific), eastern and western Indian Ocean, southwestern China, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Arctic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for East Asia (excluding eastern China), Russia, the maritime continent, America, Africa (excluding northeastern and central regions), and northern Australia. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for Europe and Central Asia. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the eastern tropical Pacific. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for western India, Pakistan, the Bay of Bengal, western Indian Ocean near northern Madagascar, and South China Sea. A tendency for above normal precipitation is expected for eastern Australia, the northern North Pacific, Canada (excluding southern region), and the Arctic. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western equatorial Pacific and the central and eastern off-equatorial North Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for eastern South Pacific (excluding equatorial region), Madagascar, and the Indian Ocean near Madagascar and Somalia. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for southern Africa and southern Argentina. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for the eastern equatorial Pacific and northern North Africa.

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2. Forecast for November 2020 - January 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the northern North Pacific, western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), Tasman Sea, tropical Atlantic, subtropical South Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Arctic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for Russia, western China, southern USA, Central America, southern South America, South Africa, and the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for Europe, Central Asia, and northwestern Australia. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the central equatorial Pacific and eastern off-equatorial South Pacific. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the South China and Philippine Seas and the eastern Arctic. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for Russia and Alaska. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western equatorial Pacific and the central off-equatorial Pacific. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern South Pacific (excluding equatorial region), eastern China, Central Asia (excluding Kazakhstan), Mexico, and southern Argentina. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is expected for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. A tendency for near normal precipitation is predicted for northern Africa.

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