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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

The APCC seasonal forecast is produced through a multi-model ensemble method, utilizing climate models from 15 climate forecasting centers and institutions in 11 countries around the world. Our forecast information should be used for reference only. Please consult the respective country’s national meteorological service for the official seasonal forecast for that country.

Outlook

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Climate Outlook for March - August 2021


(Issued: 19 Feb 2021)


○ ​ The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “INACTIVE”. During January 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The negative Niño3.4 index around -0.5℃ is expected during the boreal spring and the intensity is likely to be weakened during the boreal summer. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a greater than 50% chance of neutral conditions and a decreasing chance of La Niña conditions for March - August 2021.

○ ​ Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding India and the Indochinese Peninsula), North Africa, and eastern Canada and USA for March – August 2021.

○ ​ A tendency for above and below normal precipitation is predicted for Australia and Argentina for March – August 2021, respectively.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for March - May 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the subtropical Pacific and Atlantic, Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Mediterranean Sea, southern USA, and Mexico. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding the Indochinese Peninsula), North Africa, eastern Canada, northeastern USA, southern Brazil, and the tropical North Atlantic. A tendency for above normal temperature is predicted for Greenland and Argentina. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the central and eastern tropical South Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for northern South America and the southern regions of Pacific, Atlantic, and the Indian Ocean. A tendency for below normal temperatures is expected for western Canada and Australia, Alaska, and some regions of Southern Africa. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochinese Peninsula, the Philippines, and northern South America. A tendency for above normal precipitation is expected for eastern Russia, Canada, and Australia. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the central equatorial Pacific and the eastern off-equatorial South Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the southern USA, Central Asia, and Saudi Arabia. A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for the subtropical North Atlantic, tropical South Atlantic, and Argentina.

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2. Forecast for June - August 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the subtropical Pacific, western China and USA, and the subtropical North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding India), North Africa, and eastern Canada and USA. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for Alaska, western Canada, southern Brazil, and Argentina. Strongly enhanced probability 3 / 12 for below normal temperatures is expected for the eastern tropical South Pacific. A tendency for below normal temperatures is predicted for India and East Africa. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for Indonesia. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for Australia and the Sahel. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the central off-equatorial South Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western Indian Ocean. A tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for northern USA, Argentina, and Western and Southern Europe. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for Saudi Arabia and North Africa.


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