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Outlook


Our seasonal forecasts are issued on the 20th of each month. In the case that the 20th falls on a weekend or national holiday, they are issued on the closest workday.

The APCC seasonal forecast is produced through a multi-model ensemble method, utilizing climate models from 15 climate forecasting centers and institutions in 11 countries around the world. Our forecast information should be used for reference only. Please consult the respective country’s national meteorological service for the official seasonal forecast for that country.

Outlook

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Climate Outlook for December 2020 - May 2021


(Issued: 20 Nov 2020)


○ ​ The “La Niña ALERT” remains, meaning the chance of La Niña forming in the coming two seasons is around 70%.

○ ​ During October 2020, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to be -1.5℃ and increase to -0.6℃ in December 2020 – May 2021. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 49% probability of strong La Niña for December 2020 – February 2021 and a 37% probability of weak La Niña for February – April 2021.

○ ​ Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for northern Mexico and enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for eastern Russia and Northern Europe for December 2020 – May 2021.

○ ​ Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for southern USA and a tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for Argentina for December 2020 – May 2021.


Temperature and Precipitation Outlook:

1. Forecast for December 2020 - February 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for the Arctic, Pacific (excluding central and eastern tropical region and southern South Pacific), western and eastern Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for Russia, East Asia (excluding southeastern China), USA, eastern Canada, Argentina, and the subtropical South Atlantic. A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for Europe (excluding Northern Europe), Central Asia, the Middle East, southern Africa, central Canada, eastern Brazil, and the Antarctic. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the central and eastern tropical Pacific. A tendency for near normal temperatures is predicted for northern South America. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is expected for the Arctic, northern North Pacific, the western subtropical South Pacific, central Russia, eastern Australia, the Philippine and South China Seas, eastern Indian Ocean, Caribbean Sea, northern South America, and the Antarctic Ocean. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for western Australia, northern Russia, Northern Europe, and Canada. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western and central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern subtropical South Pacific, northeastern Pacific near USA, Mexico, the southern Indian Ocean, western Indian Ocean near Somalia, Middle East, and the western and southeastern China. A tendency for below normal precipitation is expected for the subtropical North Atlantic and southern South America. Enhanced probability for near normal precipitation is predicted for the eastern equatorial Pacific and the eastern Sahel. A tendency for near normal precipitation is expected for the western Sahel.

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2. Forecast for March - May 2021

Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region), northern North Pacific, subtropical North Atlantic, Mexico, and the Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is expected for the Arctic, Eurasia (excluding India and the Indochinese Peninsula), the Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, subtropical South Atlantic, and USA (excluding northwestern region). A tendency for above normal temperatures is predicted for the tropical Atlantic and Canada. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is expected for the western and central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal temperatures is predicted for the eastern tropical Pacific and northern South America. A tendency for near normal temperatures is expected for the western Indian Ocean near Madagascar and central South America. Enhanced probability for above normal precipitation is predicted for the western tropical Pacific (excluding equatorial region) and northern Brazil. A tendency for above normal precipitation is expected for the Arctic, eastern Russia, and southern Canada. Strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for the western and central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the eastern off-equatorial South Pacific, eastern subtropical South Pacific, northeastern Pacific near USA, northern Middle East, and Central Asia (excluding Kazakhstan). A tendency for below normal precipitation is predicted for the Mediterranean Sea and the subtropical North Atlantic.


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