In order to promote the practical use of real-time BSISO information provided by APEC Climate Center (APCC), we create user friendly information, which estimates heavy rainfall probability forecasts using BSISO forecast indices. To achieve this, there are two objectives: the first is to give guidance on the practical use and interpretation of the BSISO forecast for heavy rainfall probability forecast over Mekong river, and the second is to provide stable and reliable BSISO information by delivering the probability forecast of heavy rainfall occurrence to the APCC webpage and making leap year recognized in the operational system. Heavy rainfall probability at the 90th percentile in the Mekong river basin during summer is high when BSISO is active and has particular (P3-7 for BSISO1; P1-2,7-8 for BSISO2) phases, which have favorable conditions for making a strong Indochina monsoon with strong easterlies (westerlies) over the Philippine sea (Northwest Pacific). Within the phases, the location of easterlies and westerlies can be slightly changed according to the motion of east-west seesaw (BSISO1) or south-north dipole (BSISO2) structure in Outgoing Longwave Radiation. Based on the observed relationship between heavy rainfall probability and BSISO, we produce ‘heavy rainfall probability forecasts’ by combining the observed relationship and predicted BSISO indices for 2013-2016.

Probability forecasts of heavy rainfall in Mekong river basin show improvements of 30%-50% over climatological forecasts at week-2 lead time. That means APCC’s BSISO forecast indices are capable of predicting heavy rainfall probability forecast over Mekong river basin. In order to enhance the practical use of APCC BSISO indices, a guide for the application and interpretation of BSISO forecast indices in heavy rainfall probability forecasts over Mekong river is developed.

1. 서론

2. 연구 자료 및 방법

2.1 연구 자료

2.1.1 BSISO 지수

2.1.2 호우에 대한 정의

2.2 연구 방법

2.2.1 BSISO-호우 관계 분석

2.2.2 연구 대상 지역 선정

2.2.3 메커니즘 분석

2.2.4 BSISO 예측 지수 기반 호우 발생 가능성 예보 생산

2.2.5 Forecast Skill assessment

2.2.5.1 Dichotomous (yes/no) forecasts

2.2.5.2 Multi-category forecasts

3. 연구내용

3.1 BSISO impact on heavy rainfall over Asia monsoon region

3.1.1 BSISO-heavy R relationship analysis

3.1.2 BSISO-heavy R relationship analysis over Mekong river

3.1.3 Mechanism

3.1.4 BSISO 예측 지수 기반 호우 발생 가능성 예측 자료 평가

3.1.4.1 General forecast skill for rainfall amount

3.1.4.2 Probability Forecast skills

3.1.4.3 Guidance

3.1.4.4 Case Study Evaluation

4. 토론 및 결론

4.1 토론

4.2 성취업적

4.3 결론

REFERENCE

[부록 1]

[부록 2]

[부록 3]