This study assesses the performance of CMIP5 GCMs, in terms of their ability to represent mean interdiurnal variability (MIDV) of surface maximum and minimum temperatures, surface wind speed and precipitation, under present climate conditions. We assess which models exhibit the best ability to represent MIDV, and thus which models would are the most efficient in reliably projecting changes in the interdiurnal variability of a future climate. Based on the most efficient CMIP5 models chosen for each surface variable, the projected changes in MIDV in a future climate are presented. An obvious signal of marked reduction in the MIDV for surface maximum and minimum temperatures over high latitudes in cool seasons was shown; particularly in January and there was a reduction in the MIDV for surface wind speed over large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere throughout most of the year, except in January. The models also revealed a large amount of noise in the MIDV for surface wind speed. A signal of noticeable increase in the MIDV for precipitation in middle to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in January was apparent, and a large increase over East Asia throughout most of the year. This study suggests a possible change in the characteristics of weather (day‐to‐day) in the future. These findings should be considered equally as important as findings related to mean climate change as the increasing risk of extreme weather is related to variability on daily time scales as well as to mean climate change.

1. INTRODUCTION

2. METHODOLOGY

2.1 Reanalysis and Models

2.2 Analysis method

3. RESULTS

3.1 Observed MIDV

3.2 Simulated MIDV: Model Evaluation

3.3 Simulated MIDV: Future projection

4. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION