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Analysis of Climatic Trends over South Asia

저자
Dr. Sobhan Kumar Sahu
 
작성일
2016.01.23
조회
216
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Both inland and marine fisheries areof key importance in Bangladesh in terms of provision of food security, livelihoods and national economy. Although it is an accepted fact that climate dynamics impact on marine fisheries, it is challenging to establish clear seasonal and annual trends. However, progression is being made because of the inter-disciplinary application of climate information. The present study describes the correlation between climatic variability and marine fish productivity for three different time periods: December to February; March to May and September to November in the years 1998-2009. The study integrates data from climatology, oceanography and the diversity of fish species in a catch, and is focused on the northern Bay of Bengal region; the marine territorial range of Bangladesh. Observed changes in the fisheries are closely related to observed changes in the oceanic climate. During the twelve year period, the close link between fish productivity, (expressed as fish catch per trawler) is best explained by the effect of the chlorophyll (Chl-a) gradient in a space-time continuum. Marine fish productivity fluctuates from about 20% to 17.5% of total fish production, and correlates significantly with the spatial distribution of Chl-a in the region. Chl-a concentration showed a marked decline of 0.055 mg/m3 between 1998 and 2009 during September-November [SON], compared to a decline of the order 0.012 mg/m3 during December-February [DJF] and of 0.033 mg/m3 during March to May [MAM] during the same temporal period. A decline in Chl-a is explained by an increasing sea surface temperature [SST] trend. It may possibly be concluded that, SST values show a positive trend of 0.07°C in DJF and SON. This analysis reflects a close correlation between increasing SST and an increasing trend in Sea Surface Height (SSH) in all the three seasons. The inverse trend of SST and SSH during MAM is explained on the basis of the local oceanic circulatory processes and currents, along with the influence of prominent land-sea-atmospheric phenomena, such as runoff and eddies. The study draws attention to the application of time series climate observations derived using evolving satellite remote sensing technology, in conjunction with ground-based observations, in order to understand the marine ecosystem complexity. It can be further concluded that the addressing of climate related concerns demands a collaborative inter-disciplinary effort between multiple sectors for the facilitation of decision making for the benefit of society.