We assessed the performance of climate reproduction and seasonal prediction using the Regional Climate Model 4.3 (RegCM4.3) for the period from 1989~2008. In order to determine the optimal configuration of RegCM4.3 for the East Asian region, RegCM4.3 was driven by Era-interim reanalysis as initial and boundary conditions, while applying two other land schemes and PBL schemes. According to our analysis, RegCM4.3 reproduced both spatial patterns of mean state and interanuual variability well over East Asia. RegCM4.3 with the CLM3 land model, instead of the BATS land scheme, demonstrated a more realistic reproduction over East Asia in the summer and winter time. The impact of the PBL scheme is generally smaller compared to the land schemes. Therefore, we selected the CLM3 land model as the best model configuration. Using this selected configuration, we produced seasonal predictions using RegCM4.3, driven by APCC/CCSM3(CCSM/CLM) and bias-corrected APCC/CCSM3(BC_CCSM/CLM) as initial and boundary conditions. The BC_CCSM/CLM showed better predictability, in terms of both climatological mean and RMSE, compared to the CCSM/CLM. However, the bias-corrections do not help to improve the temporal correlation coefficient because these do not change the climatic trends and phases of interannual variability simulated by APCC/CCSM3.

1. 서론

2. 지역기후모델 및 자료생산 방법

2.1 지역기후모델

2.2 실험 방법

2.3 관측자료

3. Results and discussion

3.1 지역기후모델의 기후재현성능 평가

3.2 지역기후모델의 계절예측성능 평가

4. 요약 및 결론