일반공지
- 작성자
- Admin
- 작성일
- 2013.11.14
- 조회
- 216
미국 유타기후센터(Utah Climate Center) Dr. Robert Gillies 센터장과 유타주립대학교 (Utah State University) Dr. Simon S-Y Wang 교수가 오는 11월 15일 APEC 기후센터(APCC)를 방문한다. Gillies 박사와 Wang 박사는 오후 2시에 APCC 2층에 위치한 국제회의실에서 세미나를 주재한다.
세미나 일정 등 상세 정보는 아래와 같다.
1. 발표자
1) Dr. Robert Gillies (Director, Utah Climate Center)
2) Dr. Simon S-Y Wang (Assistant Professor, Utah State University)
2. 발표 제목
1) The Utah Climate Center / Climate change impact in Nepal and its society
2) Are greenhouse gases changing ENSO precursors in the Western North Pacific?
3. 일시: 2013년 11월 15일 금요일 오후 2시
4. 장소: APEC 기후센터 국제회의실 (2층)
5. Abstract
The Utah Climate Center / Climate change impact in Nepal and its society
A short introduction of the Utah Climate Center will be followed by a recent climate research for Nepal. Western Nepal has experienced consecutive and worsened winter drought conditions since 2000 culminating in a severe drought episode during 2008-2009. In this study, winter droughts in western Nepal were analyzed using respectively instumental records and a paleoclimatic drought index, and how the society can cope with the projected drought through changing practices in livestock and agriculture. Althought decadal-scale drought conditions were found to be recurrent in the paleoclimate record, the severity of the recent decadal drought clearly stands out and is suggestive of potential anthropogenic influences in the recent decades. Meteorological diagnosis revealed that (1) winter drought in western Nepal is linked to the Arctic Oscillation and its decadal variability, and that (2) the persistent warming of the Indian Ocean likely contributes to the suppression of rainfall. It is therefore conceivable that the recent spells of decadal drought in Nepal drought are symptomatic of both natural variability and anthropogenic influences, componded by late monsoons during the dry phase of the Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (QDO) in Nepal’s precipitation regime. Methods to help the society cope with such impending drought situation are discussed.
Are greenhouse gases changing ENSO precursors in the Western North Pacific?
Using multiple observational and model datasets, the authors document a strengthening relationship between boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the following year. The increased WNP–ENSO association emerged in the mid-twentieth century and has grown through the present, reaching correlation coefficients as high as ~0.70 in recent decades. Fully coupled climate experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), replicate the WNP–ENSO association and indicate that greenhouse gases (GHGs) are largely responsible for this observed increase. The authors speculate that shifts in the location of the largest positive SST trends between the subtropical and tropical western Pacific impact the low-level circulation in a manner that reinforces the link between the WNP and the development of ENSO. A strengthened GHG-driven relationship with the WNP provides an example of how anthropogenic climate change may directly influence one of the most prominent patterns of natural climate variability, ENSO, and potentially improve the skill of intraseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction.