Recently, East Asia has faced a surge in extreme hydrometeorological disasters, such as heatwaves and droughts, underscoring the critical need for robust prediction information to proactively address the climate crisis and minimize socio-economic damage. 

In response, the APEC Climate Center (APCC) has made a remarkable breakthrough by precisely diagnosing the "predictability of heatwaves and droughts over East Asia" and enhancing forecast reliability using the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) system, an innovative system that projects climate conditions for the coming decade.

This achievement holds substantial value as it leverages observational data to scientifically analyze the capabilities and limitations of long-term climate forecasting tailored to East Asia, providing a crucial stepping stone for establishing an effective climate disaster response framework.

Through this comprehensive evaluation, APCC researchers derived meaningful results indicating that predictive performance is notably stronger for heatwave "frequency" rather than intensity, and for capturing "decadal long-term average states" of drought rather than single-year variations. Furthermore, the study identified that different prediction models possess distinct error profiles and internal physical mechanisms.

Consequently, the team scientifically demonstrated that implementing "customized bias correction methods tailored to the specific characteristics of individual models" is essential for maximizing prediction accuracy.

Ultimately, these findings are expected to fundamentally elevate the reliability of long-term climate prediction information, serving as a robust scientific foundation to support more sophisticated climate crisis response systems and the establishment of national climate policies.

This research outcome was introduced as a key achievement of the center in the 2025 APCC Annual Report. (https://www.apcc21.org/board/BBSMSTR_000000000012?lang=en)
 

(This material was produced using AI tools.)