The APEC Climate Center (APCC) announced the successful development of a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME)-based 'Integrated Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction System' to address the limitations of existing seasonal prediction information and strengthen early warning capabilities for climate disasters. Conventional monthly seasonal forecasts had limitations in predicting the increasingly frequent extreme weather events driven by the recent climate crisis
. In response, APCC has established its own subseasonal prediction system that integrates diverse global models to produce differentiated information for tackling extreme weather events
.
▶ Enhancing Accuracy by Integrating Results from Around 10 Global Prediction Models: Moving away from reliance on a single model, APCC adopted the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) method, which collects and analyzes data from various climate prediction models worldwide. By incorporating the latest statistical methods, the system reduces forecast errors and significantly boosts accuracy.

▶ Providing Seamless Climate Information for Up to 4 Weeks Ahead: Updated weekly with the latest data, the system provides seamless weekly changes in subseasonal climate for the upcoming four weeks without interruption.

This new prediction system focuses on delivering key forecast information for 3 to 4 weeks ahead, which is essential for real-world applications and industries such as disaster prevention, agricultural management, and hydrological and energy operations. It is anticipated to play a vital role in proactively preparing for and mitigating climate risks across the Asia-Pacific region.

( Those above images were generated with the support of AI )