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- 2012.04.17
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미국 플로리다주립대학교 (Florida State University) Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS)의 신동욱 박사 초청 세미나가 개최 안내.
ㅇ 일시 : 2012 1. 30(월) 16:00
ㅇ 장소 : 부산 APCC 2층 Edelweiss Room
ㅇ 발표자 : 신동욱 박사, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), Florida State University
ㅇ 주제 : Hidden Value in a Seasonal Dynamical Downscaling System for Agricultural Applications
ㅇ Abstract
Hidden values in a season-long dynamical downscaling model are unveiled by using non-traditional skill evaluation statistics. One of our primary metrics for evaluating the downscaling methodologies is comparing crop yields simulated using the downscaled data, assuming non-irrigated conditions, to yields simulated using observations. Rainfed crops in the southeast United States are very sensitive to water stress. In fact, these crops are often more sensitive to periods of wet/dry spells than to seasonal rainfall totals. Thus, using crop models as a performance metric provides an alternative to simply evaluating the prediction/simulation of seasonal mean, and has more practicalrelevance. Furthermore, while the discovery of climate signals contributing to total summertime precipitation variability remains elusive, our results suggest that dynamical models may better simulate intra-seasonal variability than simply the anomalies of the seasonal mean.