The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña Watch”. Niño3.4 index is expected to be 0.1℃ for May 2024 and then gradually decrease to -1.2℃ for October 2024. The probability for ENSO neutral conditions is expected to be 55% for May – July 2024 and then decrease. Meanwhile, the chance for La Niña conditions is expected to gradually increase and then become dominant (~61%) for August – October 2024.
MME Seasonal Outlook for May 2024 ~ October 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe except for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific for May – October 2024. For the same period, above normal precipitation is predicted for central Africa, South Asia, Indonesia, and the Caribbean Sea, whereas below normal precipitation is expected for the western equatorial Pacific, eastern South Pacific, central and southern South America, and some region of southern Africa.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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