The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña Watch”. In February 2024, above normal sea surface temperature anomalies spanned the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to be 0.7℃ for April 2024 and then gradually decrease to -1℃ for September 2024. The probability for ENSO neutral conditions is expected to be 60% for April – June 2024 and then decrease. Meanwhile, the chance for La Niña conditions is expected to gradually increase and then become dominant (~64%) for July – September 2024.
MME Seasonal Outlook for April 2024 ~ September 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe except for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific for April – September 2024. For April – June 2024, strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is predicted for region spanning the Indochinese Peninsula to the central tropical North Pacific. For July – September 2024, strongly enhanced probability for below normal precipitation is expected for the western equatorial Pacific and the central and eastern off-equatorial North Pacific.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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