The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “El Niño Alert”. In January 2024, above normal sea surface temperature anomalies spanned the equatorial Pacific. As the positive Niño3.4 index is expected to gradually decrease and then become negative for the whole forecast period, the probability for El Niño conditions is also expected to be 71% for March – May 2024 and then decrease. Meanwhile, the chance for La Niña conditions is expected to gradually increase and then become dominant (~55%) for June – August 2024.
MME Seasonal Outlook for March 2024 ~ August 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe for March – August 2024. For March – May 2024, above normal precipitation is predicted for the equatorial Pacific. For the same region is expected below normal precipitation for June – August 2024.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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