The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “El Niño Alert”. In December 2023, above normal sea surface temperature anomalies spanned the equatorial Pacific. As the positive Niño3.4 index is expected to gradually decrease and then become negative for the whole forecast period, the probability for El Niño conditions is also expected to be 84% for February – April 2024 and then decrease. Meanwhile, the chance for ENSO-neutral conditions is expected to gradually increase and then become dominant.
Temperature/Precipitation Forecast for February ~ July 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe for February – July 2024. For February – April 2024, above normal precipitation is predicted for the equatorial Pacific. For the same region is expected below normal precipitation for May – July 2024.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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