The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña Watch”. Niño3.4 index is expected to be -0.1℃ for June 2024 and then gradually decrease to -1.1℃ for November 2024. The probability for ENSO neutral conditions is expected to be 52% for June – August 2024 and then decrease. Meanwhile, the chance for La Niña conditions is expected to gradually increase and then become dominant (~57%) for September – November 2024.
MME Seasonal Outlook for June 2024 ~ November 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe except for the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the eastern subtropical South Pacific for June – November 2024. For the same period, above normal precipitation is predicted for central Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central America, and the Caribbean Sea, whereas below normal precipitation is expected for the eastern South Pacific and southern South America.
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