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- 2014.02.11
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경상대학교 토목공학과 이태삼 교수가 오는 2월 17일 APEC 기후센터(APCC)를 방문한다. 이태삼 교수는 「APCC 전문가 초청 세미나」시리즈의 2014년도 두번째 초청 전문가로, 오후 4시부터 APCC 2층에 위치한 국제회의실에서 세미나를 주재한다.
세미나 일정 등 상세 정보는 아래와 같다.
1. 발표자 : 경상대학교 토목공학과 이태삼 교수
2. 발표 제목 : Statistical Temporal Downscaling of Daily Precipitation to Hourly
3. 일시: 2014년 2월 17일 월요일 오후 4시
4. 장소: APEC 기후센터 국제회의실 (2층)
5. Abstract
Hydro-meteorological time series on finer temporal scales, such as hourly, are essential for assessing the hydrological effects of land use or climate change on medium and small watersheds. However, these time series are, in general, available at no finer than daily time intervals. An alternative method of obtaining finer time series is temporal downscaling of daily time series to hourly time series. In the current study, a temporal downscaling model that combines a nonparametric stochastic simulation approach with a genetic algorithm is proposed. The proposed model was applied to Jinju station in South Korea for a historical time period to validate the model performance. The results revealed that the proposed model preserves the key statistics (i.e., the mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 correlation, and maximum) of the historical hourly precipitation data. In addition, the occurrence and transition probabilities are well preserved in the downscaled hourly precipitation data. Furthermore, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios for the Jinju station were also analyzed, revealing that the mean and the wet-hour probability (P1) significantly increased and the standard deviation and maximum slightly increased in these scenarios. The magnitude of the increase was greater in RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. Extreme events of different durations were also tested. The downscaled hourly precipitation adequately reproduced the statistical behavior of the extremes of the historical hourly precipitation data for all durations considered. However, the inter-daily relation between the 1st hour of the present day and the last hour of the previous day was not preserved. Overall, the results demonstrated that the proposed temporal downscaling model is a good alternative method for downscaling simulated daily precipitation data from weather generators or RCM outputs.
6. 약력
- Education
2008, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA, Hydrology, PhD
2000, University of Seoul, Korea, Hydrology, MS
1998, Chosun University, Korea, Civil Engineering, BS
- Academic Positions
2011.04 - present, Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Gyeongsang National University
2011.01 - 2011.03, Research Associate, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique Centre Eau, Terre et Environnement, Quebec, Canada
2009. - 2010.11, Postdoctoral Researcher, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique Centre Eau, Terre et Environnement, Quebec, Canada