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- 2014.02.17
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일본 교토대학교 방재연구소 김선민 교수가 오는 2월 18일 APEC 기후센터(APCC)를 방문한다. 김선민 교수는 오전 11시부터 APCC 2층에 위치한 국제회의실에서 미래 기후변화에 따른 극한 홍수사상 모의에 대한 세미나를 주재한다.
세미나 일정 등 상세 정보는 아래와 같다.
1. 발표자 : 김선민 교수 (일본 교토대학교, Disaster Prevention Research Institute)
2. 발표 제목 : Simulation of Extreme Flood Events considering Future Climate Change
3. 일시: 2014년 2월 18일 화요일 오전 11시
4. 장소: APEC 기후센터 국제회의실 (2층)
5. Abstract
The frequency and strength of hazardous typhoons seems to be changed under the different climate condition in the end of this century. However, it is not simple to estimate future typhoon hazards by using limited cases from the global warming experiment using GCMs. The amount of damage caused by a typhoon largely depends on the typhoon tracks. Heavy precipitation caused by typhoon is also related to topographic features such as mountain ranges and migration speed of the typhoon.
In this study, we introduce a method to simulate extreme flood events considering various typhoon tracks in the end of century. We first conducted a control simulation with a typhoon event of the end of century using WRF 3.1.1 based on an initial and boundary condition from a GCM output of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Japan. Computational domain in the WRF simulation is set as 453 x 453 grids of 5 km resolution in horizontal and 50 grids in vertical around Japan. Spectral nudging technique was applied to keep the typhoon track close to the reference case produced in the GCM. From the controlled run of the typhoon simulation using the WRF model, potential vorticity of the typhoon was extracted and it was relocated in various locations. The relocated typhoons are within a range of plus or minus ten grids in westeast direction and zero plus or minus eight grids in the south-north direction. In total 189 different cases of typhoon routes, including a zero displacement case, were generated and simulated.
With the various precipitation patterns from the different typhoon track simulations, rainfall-runoff simulation was carried out for the Tone River Basin, which is one of the most important river basins in Japan locating in the northeast of Tokyo. The main flood check point is Yattajima station located in the middle of the basin with 5,134 km2 of upstream of the basin. The designed flood peak for the Yattajima station is 22,000 m3/ sec, which corresponds to 200 years in flood return period. The runoff simulation shows that the amount of accumulated precipitation and the size of flood peak do not match in many cases. Even though the accumulated precipitation was not much different (i.e. 431mm and 429mm), the flood peak increased by 29.8% (i.e. 32,181 m3/sec and 41,776 m3/sec, respectively). This example emphasizes that not only the total amount of precipitation, but also the spatial and temporal change, is important in determining the peak value of discharge. At the same time, significant flood peaks occurred during several specific typhoon tracks (i.e. 52,627 m3/sec, 49,735 m3/sec, 49,301 m3/sec). These amounts are more than double the designed flood peak for the Yattajima station, which is the reference index for the flood protection and/or mitigation of the river.
It is able to show that the worst case scenario can be estimated on a specific region using various realizations of typhoon landfall cases, and this information can be utilized as a consideration index for the flood mitigation plan.
6. 약력
- Education
Dr. Eng., September 2006
Urban and Environmental Eng., Kyoto University (Japan)
Concentrations: Hydrology, Flood Forecasting, Weather Radar
Dissertation: Stochastic Real-Time Flood Forecasting Using Weather Radar and a Distributed
Hydrologic Model
M.A., February 2003
Water and Environmental Eng., Chungnam National University (Korea)
Concentrations: Hydraulics, Hydrology, Flood
Thesis: Manning’s n Calibration Using an Unsteady Flood Routing Model
B.A., February 1999
Civil Eng., Chungnam National University (Korea)
- Academic Positions
Associate Professor (Specially Appointed), February 2013 ~ Present
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Lecturer, January 2010 ~ January 2013
Dept. of Civil ad Earth Resources Eng., Kyoto University
Associate Professor (Designated), April 2008 ~ December 2009
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Research Associate, October 2006 ~March 2008
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Hydrologic Engineer, March 2003 ~ September 2003
Korea Water Resources Corporation, Korea
Department: Tamjin-Dam Construction Dept.