하와이대학교, IPRC의 Prof. Bin Wang가 오는 7월 15일 APEC 기후센터(APCC)를 방문한다. Prof. Bin Wang은「Predictability of the Asian and East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall」라는 주제로 오후 2시부터 APCC 2층에 위치한 국제회의실에서 세미나를 주재한다.

세미나 일정 등 상세 정보는 아래와 같다.


1. 발표자 : 하와이대학교, IPRC의 Prof. Bin Wang

2. 발표 제목 : Predictability of the Asian and East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

3. 일시: 2014년 7월 15일 화요일 오전 10시 30분

4. 장소: APEC 기후센터 국제회의실 (2층)

5. 초록
To what extent the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) rainfall is predictable has been an important but long-standing issue in climate science. Here we introduce a predictable mode analysis (PMA) method to estimate the predictability of the ASM rainfall. The PMA is an integral approach combining empirical analysis, physical understanding and hindcast experiments. The empirical analysis detects most important patterns; the understanding of physical processes governing these patterns establishes the physical basis for empirical prediction; and the empirical and dynamical models’ predictions determine predictable modes. The potential predictability can then be estimated by the fractional variance accounted for by the “predictable” modes. This approach also provides a bias correction of spatial patterns to improve prediction skills. Thus PMA provides a powerful tool to integrate four components of climate variability and predictability study: detection of the principal modes, physical understanding of the sources of variability, physics- based empirical and dynamical predictions and predictability estimation.
For the ASM rainfall during June-July-August, we identify four major modes of variability by analysis of the 1979-2010 observation: (1) El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) developing mode, (2) Indo-Pacific coupled mode which is sustained by a positive thermodynamic feedback with the aid of background mean flows and mean precipitation, (3) the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, and (4) a trend mode. If these four modes are perfectly predicted, about 47% of the total variance can be captured over the entire Asian-Australia monsoon domain. We show that these modes can be predicted reasonably well by a physical-empirical prediction model as well as the atmosphere-ocean coupled models’ multi-model ensemble (MME). The empirical and dynamical coupled models have comparable prediction skills and complementary strengths in predicting the ASM precipitation. The results suggest that the four major modes may be regarded as “predictable” modes, and the PMA provides a useful approach for assessing the seasonal predictability and improve prediction skill.

6. 약력
Education
1984 - Ph.D. (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics), Florida State University, USA
1981 - M.S. (Meteorology), University of Science and Technology of China, Beijing, China
1966 - B.S. [Equivalent] (Physical Oceanography), Ocean University of Qingdao, Qingdao, China

Research Interests
- Variability and predictability of the Asian-Australian monsoon system
- Tropical intraseasonal oscillations
- Seasonal climate prediction
- Tropical cyclones
- El Niño–Southern Oscillation dynamics
- Large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions
- The annual cycle in the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system
- Interdecadal variability and climate changes of the Asian-Pacific climate

Professional Experience
- Chair, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii (7/2010–1/2014)
- Co-Leader, Asian-Australian Monsoon Team, IPRC (1/99-Present)
- Professor, Meteorology, University of Hawaii (7/92–Present)
- Senior Fellow, JIMAR, NOAA/UH (1/88–Present)
- Guest Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science (2001-Present); Peking University (2008-11); Director, Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (2013-Present); Leader Professor, Ocean University of China (2005-09).
- Visiting Professor, Nagoya University, Japan (2004); University of Tokyo (2001); City University of Hong Kong (2000), National Taiwan University (2001), Seoul National University (2001); Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (1994).
- Associate Professor, Meteorology, University of Hawaii (7/89–6/92)
- Assistant Professor, Meteorology, University of Hawaii (1/87–6/89)
- Visiting Scientist, GFDP, Princeton University (11/84–12/86)
- Research Associate, GFDI, Florida State University (8/84–11/84)
- Research Assistant, Meteorology and GFDI, Florida State University (5/81–8/84)
- Assistant Researcher, IAP, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing (10/78–4/81)
- Lecturer, Ocean University of Qingdao, China (9/75–9/78)
- Meteorologist, Weather Bureau of Shandong Province, China (9/67–8/75)