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- 2012.04.17
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International Pacific Research Center (IPRC)의 빈왕 교수 초청 세미나가 개최 안내
ㅇ 일시 : 2012. 3. 14(수) 11:00
ㅇ 장소 : 부산 APCC 2층 Edelweiss Room
ㅇ 발표자 : Prof. Bin Wang, IPRC
ㅇ 주제 : Why has Arabian Sea storm intensified recently?
ㅇ Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Arabian Sea in pre-monsoon season (May and June) have intensified since 1997 primarily due to a significant reduction in storm-ambient vertical wind shear (VWS), which was attributed to the dimming effect of increasing anthropogenic black carbon and sulfates emissions. The climate model-simulated aerosol-induced VWS reduction, however, is moderate (~1 m/s over 30-years) and marginally significant. We show that the TC intensification is due to advanced TC occurrences, which result in a marked reduction of the VWS that is five times larger than the aerosol-induced change. The earlier TC occurrence is a consequence of advanced summer monsoon, which is evidenced by a significant trend in the 850 hPa relative vorticity, rainfall and westerly wind. The earlier development of summer monsoon is caused by enhanced land-ocean thermal contrast between South Asian landmass and Indian Ocean. Although the root cause of the increased land-ocean thermal contrast remains elusive, we contemplate that both internally-generated interdecadal variation and anthropogenic forcing-induced warming may be contributing factors.