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- 2020.08.04
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2019 International Workshop on Climate Prediction: Past, Present, and Future
In order to provide an opportunity to review the main scientific and operational advances in climate prediction on the sub-seasonal and seasonal time scales, as well as the challenges, limitations, and future directions, APCC is hosting an international workshop on climate prediction in Taipei, Chinese Taipei, co-hosed by the Central Weather Bureau of Chinese Taipei. The purpose of the workshop is (i) to bring together the scientists and producers who are at the forefront of sub-seasonal and seasonal climate prediction, with a major focus on ensemble forecasting and (ii) to strength interaction and enhance partnerships between the research and operational communities.
Theme
- The Present and Future of Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Climate Prediction
Period & Venue
- June 3 - 4, 2019 / International Conference Room, Central Weather Bureau (CWB), Chinese Taipei
Host
- APEC Climate Center & Central Weather Bureau of Chinese Taipei
Keynote Session: Climate Prediction: Where are we now?
Chaired by Dr. Jin Ho Yoo, Director of Climate Services and Research Division, APCC
Keynote Session explores the current status of sub-seasonal and seasonal climate predictions with a major focus on ensemble forecasting and forecast skill, as well as the current status, progress, and future prospects in leading organizations involved in climate prediction (e.g., research, operation, policy making, and user communities) for more reliable and useful climate forecast information.
- • Dr. Francisco Doblas-Reyes (Head, Department of Earth Sciences, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain)
- Presentation Title : Transitioning climate prediction from research to operations
- • Dr. Arun Kumar (Principal Scientist, Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NWS/NOAA, USA)
- Presentation Title : WMO Infrastructure for Operational Long-Range Forecasts
Session I: [Operational Issues] Current Status and Progress of Seasonal Prediction System
Chaired by Dr. Emily Becker, Scientist of Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, USA
Session I discusses the current status, progress, and limitations of current Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) prediction systems from various operation centers for sub-seasonal and seasonal climate forecasts. Cases are explored as examples of challenges and successes in order to improve the accuracy of the seasonal forecast information and discuss the research needed to improve MME, as well as the strategy to address prediction issues faced in MME operations.
- • Dr. Young-Mi Min (Research Fellow, Climate Prediction Department, APCC, Korea)
- Presentation Title : Current Status and Progress of APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction System
- • Dr. Emily Becker (Scientist, Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NWS/NOAA, USA)
- Presentation Title : The North American Multi-Model Ensemble
- • Dr. Silvio Gualdi (Head, Division of Climate Simulations and Predictions, Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Italy & Contributors to C3S)
- Presentation Title : Multi-system seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service
- • Dr. Andrew Robertson (Senior Research Fellow, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, USA)
- Presentation Title : Current Status of IRI's Multimodel Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
Session II: [Modeling Issues] Progress and Challenges in Climate Modeling for Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Ensemble Prediction
Chaired by Dr. Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Distinguished Research Fellow of Research Center for Environmental Changes, Chinese Taipei
Session II discusses climate modeling aspects for more reliable seasonal prediction skills such as initialization, ensemble prediction, resolution, etc. The session assesses the recently developed processes in climate modeling (coupling, dynamics, physics, etc.) and identifies areas where we can better improve the seasonal prediction skill.
- • Dr. Aihong Zhong (Supervisor of Oceanographic Systems, National Operations Centre, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)
- Presentation Title : Developing and Improving the Bureau's Seasonal Prediction System
- • Dr. Huang-Hsiung Hsu (Distinguished Research Fellow, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Chinese Taipei)
- Presentation Title : Coupling a High-resolution Oceanic Mixed Layer Model to AGCMs Improves the Madden-Julian Oscillation Simulation
- • Dr. Andreas Prein (Project Scientist I, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA)
- Presentation Title : Continental-Scale Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling at NCAR: Advances, Challenges, and Lessons Learned for S2S and Climate Predictions
- • Dr. Rae-Seol Park (Head, Forecasting Division, Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Korea)
- Presentation Title : Interaction and consistency among physics modules in the Korean Integrated Model (KIM)
Session III: [Scientific Issues] Validation, Combination, and Calibration of Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Ensemble Prediction
Chaired by Prof. Timothy DelSole, Professor of Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Science, George Mason University, USA
Session III covers a variety of topics related to evaluation of single model ensemble/multi-model ensemble forecast quality, as well as development of methodologies for calibration of the time range from subseasonal to seasonal prediction. The session welcomes all contributions addressing methodological advancement for multi-model combination, comparison of multi-model versus single-model forecasting systems, verification metrics for deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, and advances in bias removal (calibration) on ensemble prediction.
- • Dr. Yun-Young Lee (Research Fellow, Prediction Research Department, APCC, Korea)
- Presentation Title : Subseasonal Predictability: inter-model comparison and multi-model ensemble performance
- • Prof. Timothy DelSole (Professor, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Science, George Mason University, USA)
- Presentation Title : Comparing the Predictability and Skill of Subseasonal Forecasts
- • Dr. Andrew Robertson (Senior Research Fellow, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, USA)
- Presentation Title : Calibration, Combination, and Validation Sub-seasonal Ensemble Predictions from the S2S and Sub X Databases
- • Dr. Ming-Dean Cheng (Deputy Director-General, Central Weather Bureau, Chinese Taipei)
- Presentation Title : Toward the Sub-seasonal Forecasts in CWB
- • Prof. Mong-Ming Lu (Professor, National Taiwan University, Chinese Taipei)
- Presentation Title : Validation of CWB's Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Multi-model Ensemble Prediction Systems
- • Dr. Andrea Alessandri (Climate Research Scientist, Royal Netherlands Meteorology Institute, Netherlands)
- Presentation Title : Progresses in Grand Multi-Model Ensemble Seasonal Forecasting: Maximisation of Skill and of Potential Economical Value to End-Users
- • Prof. Cheng-Ta Chen (Professor, Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Chinese Taipei)
- Presentation Title : Are the more extreme seasonal climate conditions easier to predict?
- • Dr. Swadhin Behera (Director, Application Lab., Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan)
- Presentation Title : arge Ensemble Member Based SINTEX-F Prediction System for Climate Applications