The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “El Niño”. In July 2023, above normal sea surface temperature anomalies spanned the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to be above 1.6℃ for September 2023 – February 2024. The probability for El Niño conditions is expected to be above 99% for the same period.
Temperature/Precipitation Forecast for September 2023 ~ February 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe for September 2023 – February 2024. For the same period, above normal precipitation is predicted for the equatorial Pacific, whereas below normal precipitation is expected for the central off-equatorial North Pacific, eastern Indian Ocean, and northern and western Australia.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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