The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “El Niño”. In October 2023, above normal sea surface temperature anomalies spanned the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index is expected to be around 2℃ and then gradually decrease to 0.5℃ for December 2023 – May 2024. The probability for El Niño conditions is expected to be above 85% for the same period.
Temperature/Precipitation Forecast for December 2023 ~ May 2024
Strongly enhanced probability for above normal temperatures is predicted for most of the globe for December 2023 – May 2023. For the same period, above normal precipitation is predicted for the western equatorial Pacific and region spanning the Horn of Africa to the western Indian Ocean, whereas below normal precipitation is expected for the central off-equatorial North Pacific, tropical South Atlantic, and northern Australia.
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APCC produces high-cost climate data and information by operating a real-time and highly-validated climate prediction system based on a multi-climate model ensemble (MME) technique. APCC also carries out research in order to enhance capacity in the monitoring and prediction of weather and climate in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.
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