APEC 기후센터(APCC)가 APCC의 2012년도 주요 연구 및 국제 활동 등을 기술한 APCC 2012년도 연차보고서를 2월 22일 발간했다.

APCC는 2005년 아시아-태평양 경제협력체의 합의에 의해 설립된 이래, 아·태 지역의 국가 및 사회 조직이 기후 변화로 인한 위험에 효과적으로 대처하는 것을 돕고자 과학 및 기술적 협력을 강화하겠다는 미션을 가지고 이런 제반의 활동을 성공적으로 수행해 오고 있다.

2012년도에 APCC는 단기간 기후예측의 질과 양을 개선시키고 정보 확산의 도구로서 온라인 기후정보시스템을 발전시키기 위해 노력하였다. 또한 APCC는 농업 및 수자원 등 다양한 분야에 활용 가능한 기후정보를 생산하기 위해 학제적 연구에 박차를 가하였다. 2009년도에 열린 APEC 장관 회의에서 주목을 끌었다시피, APCC는 개발도상국의 기후예측 및 기후정보 활용 능력을 배양시키는 활동 강화하고 이런 제반 기후 관련 이슈에 대한 지식과 실제 연습을 공유하는 활동을 실시하였다.

APCC는 앞으로 기존의 APCC 연구 영역을 기본으로 하되, 기후 정보 활용과 기후 정책 및 전략을 포괄하는 연구 영역을 확장할 계획이다. 이는 정책 결정자들이 실제적으로 활용할 수 있는 맞춤형 기후 정보를 제공하기 위한 것이다. 나아가 APCC는 국제적, 국가적인 차원의 아·태지역 사회경제적 번영을 위해 농업, 수자원 관리, 에너지, 산업 분야 등과 같은 기후 정보 활용을 활성화시키는 제반의 활동을 지속적으로 해나갈 예정이다.

APCC의 2012년도 연차보고서는 다음의 링크 페이지에서 확인할 수 있다.

☞ LINK to APCC 2012 Annual Report

# 2012년도 주요성과 요약
 

1. Climate Prediction
To enhance the utility of the APCC seasonal forecast, a method for a 6-month lead forecast of a hydrological drought index (SPEI) at the station level has been developed and shows some possibility for practical use. A rigorous skill assessment of these multi model ensemble methods has been performed. The results will be a basis for future improvement of multi model ensemble methods and standardizing operational forecast products.

2. Climate Modeling and Analysis
APCC has replaced the initial ocean conditions of its in-house coupled model with Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) data. As the ocean subsurface structure is better resolved, the quality of sea surface temperature improves. Additionally, decadal changes of the ENSO structure and its reproducibility by the multi model ensemble forecast were evaluated. Dynamical downscaling of seasonal forecasts was also conducted and evaluated. In order to avoid deterioration of the downscaled results from the large systematic biases in the global model forecast, a bias correction of the global forecast was first applied prior to downscaling. Through this process, dynamical downscaling is able to capture major regional variability and improve the forecast to some extent.

3. Climate Change and Applications
Various climate change scenario data were collected and a tool for data provision to different applications was constructed to support the application of climate change information to societal sectors. For better use of climate change scenarios, various data parameters, such as day-to-day weather variability, cloud-radiative feedback, mean change of tropical sea surface temperature, and the impact of aerosols, were analyzed and evaluated. The evaluation of climate change scenario data will act as a guideline for sectoral applications. Agriculture and water resources management are two major sectors for the application of climate information. Multi-scale, interdisciplinary combined research projects are ongoing to produce reliable and consistent results across sectors, as well as across spatial and temporal scales.

4. Capacity Building and International Cooperation
Capacity building for climate prediction and applications is one of main missions of APCC. This year, APCC hosted two international training courses at our headquarters in Busan and 77 participants from around 30 countries were invited to APCC. Also, APCC contributed to several regional training activities around the world. The Young Scientist Support Program, a more highly-focused capacity building activity, was also conducted, wherein 20 scientists from 10 developing countries were sponsored to work together with APCC staff for three months on their own individually designed research topics. These capacity building initiatives work towards strengthening scientific collaboration between APCC staff and regional climate experts from around the world.

To promote interdisciplinary research, which is essential for realizing the value of climate information, international conferences linking climate and water and climate and agriculture were organized by APCC in 2012. At the close of both meetings, it was agreed that APCC should play a key role in combining expertise in various disciplines to make the best use of climate information. With its own expertise in multi model ensemble seasonal forecasting, APCC continued to contribute to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast multi model ensemble as a research branch. In addition, an international collaborative research project with the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) in Taiwan is ongoing and a new project with the Cambodian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI) is about to launch.

5. Some Statistics and Future Direction for 2013
About 25 new staff members joined APCC in 2012 and the online visit count to APCC’s climate information service has grown to more than three times of that of the year before. Growth in APCC’s internal research capacity, as well as increased international recognition, will be the fuel to accelerate APCC’s efforts towards realizing our goal of enhancing socioeconomic well-being through better utilization of climate information.