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CHFP

The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) is an international initiative organized under the Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP), a working group of the Earth System Modeling and Observations (ESMO) core project within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). It provides a resource for seasonal prediction research, in the form of historical (hindcast) predictions from models that integrate the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere components of the climate system. By WGSIP consensus, the CHFP database has been transferred from its original home at the Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) in Argentina to the APEC Climate Center (APCC).

Now hosted at APCC, the platform preserves the historical CHFP archive and integrates hindcast data from the operational forecasting systems contributing to the WMO Lead Centre for Seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (WMO LC-SPMME), through coordination between WGSIP and the WMO operational counterparts with the agreement of 14 Global Producing Centres. Co-hosting these two distinct eras of climate modeling, the portal functions as a diachronic reference database for the evolution of seasonal forecasting by global climate models.

WCRP ESMO WGSIP WMO
  • CHFP data
  • WMO LC-SPMME

The CHFP dataset is a historical reference archive of global climate model seasonal hindcasts collected from 12 modeling systems. Its purpose is to characterize the potential predictability of the coupled climate system and provide a testbed for evaluating multi-model ensemble forecasts under similar initial conditions.

Historical Context
  • Origins and the Barcelona Workshop (2005–2007): The experiment was developed by the WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP), established in 2005, as a "total climate system" seasonal prediction experiment. Its design was further refined through discussions at the First WCRP Seasonal Prediction Workshop (Barcelona, June 2007), after which the TFSP mandate passed to WGSIP.
  • Framework for Systematic Initialization: The framework was designed to address multi-model structural uncertainties by examining how the initialization of major climate components — including land surface, stratospheric dynamics, and sea ice — affects seasonal predictability across modeling systems.
  • Open-Access Architecture: A standardized central data server was originally established at CIMA in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to make the historical hindcast archive openly available to the international research community for diagnostic and ensemble studies.
Scientific Significance & Core Framework
  • Integrated Climate Variability: Moving beyond traditional SST-centric predictable frameworks, CHFP provides a standardized platform to evaluate the complex influences of soil moisture, snow cover, vegetation, sea ice, stratospheric processes, and atmospheric composition on regional climate anomaly predictions.
  • Bridging Research Communities: This portal effectively breaks down institutional barriers between the 'Climate Change' research community and the operational 'Seasonal Prediction' community, allowing scientists to directly evaluate earth system models in a seasonal forecasting configuration.
Data Specification & Standardization
  • Standard Grid System: Atmospheric fields are regridded to a standard 2.5° × 2.5° resolution; ocean fields to 1° × 1°.
  • Data Format: All datasets adopt the NetCDF (network Common Data Form) standard, maximizing analysis convenience and software compatibility.
Additional Information & Reference

For institutional history, experimental setup, and updates on long-range forecast initiatives, see the ESMO framework page
- WCRP ESMO CHFP (WGSIP) Official Website

and the journal publication
- The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project (Tompkins et al., BAMS 2017)

Acknowledgement

Please use the following acknowledgment when using data from this service:
"We acknowledge the WCRP Working Group on Sub-seasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) for establishing the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) and the APEC Climate Center (APCC), Republic of Korea for providing the model output via the APCC data portal. We also thank the CHFP data providers for making their model output available and the WMO Global Producing Centres for permitting their hindcast datasets to be served in conjunction with the CHFP."